Wall Street has spent months bidding up Walmart shares, but investors are bracing for a more measured tone when the retailer delivers its annual outlook alongside quarterly results. The key reason is timing: this is the first earnings report under new CEO John Furner, who took over at the start of February and inherits a “fragile consumer” backdrop. Analysts expect the company to guide conservatively—something Walmart has historically done early in the fiscal year—especially now that expectations are elevated.
The optimism is not hard to see in the numbers and market narrative. The company recently crossed a $1 trillion market value milestone and has gained about 24% over the past year, far outpacing many packaged-food peers that have struggled as shoppers pull back. Consensus expectations compiled by LSEG put fourth-quarter revenue near $190.43 billion, while other previews similarly point to roughly $190+ billion and steady comp growth—strong, but not necessarily enough to justify a premium if outlook disappoints.
Leadership changes are also shaping the story. Alongside Furner’s appointment, management moves including bringing in former Amazon executive David Guggina to run Walmart U.S.—a signal, analysts say, that the company is doubling down on a more tech-driven operating model. Michael Lasser of UBS described it as the kind of nontraditional pick that reflects how different Walmart is versus a decade ago.
That shift is closely tied to artificial intelligence and digital convenience, where Walmart is trying to narrow gaps with rivals like Costco Wholesale and discount grocer ALDI, while competing most directly with Amazon online. Apparently, Walmart has partnered with OpenAI to let customers shop via tools like ChatGPT, and is using AI to improve delivery speed, recommendation engines, and the overall customer experience—supporting online sales growth and operational efficiency.
The other major tailwind is who is shopping there. As households “trade down,” Walmart has attracted not only its core value-seeking base but also a growing slice of higher-income shoppers—an important contributor to recent U.S. sales gains. The company has spent the past five years expanding its marketplace to over half a billion items, rolling out one-hour delivery, growing membership services, and building a roughly $4 billion advertising business—helping deliver ten straight quarters of margin improvement. Foot traffic data from Placer.ai showed visits up 2.3% in Q4 2025 and accelerating into January 2026; Sarah Henry of Logan Capital Management argued the “K-shaped” consumer is especially visible at Walmart because higher-income shoppers are more likely to use tech-enabled services.
